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post #21 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 07:50 AM
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Here is the way I'm looking at this now:

Every winter for our entire lives we have the chance of catching a cold.
Every winter for our entire lives we have the chance of catching the Flu.
Theoretically, anyone *can* die from the Flu, but we don't really worry about it, because it's very unlikely.

This winter, right now, we all are going to have the slight chance of catching Covid-19.
Like the Flu, the odds of catching it are low.
Like the Flu, if you do catch it, you might get sick, but you will also very likely recover.
Like the Flu, you are only in any real danger if you are elderly with an already-existing condition that puts you in poor health to start with.

So yeah, its a concern, but only *slightly* more of a concern than the Flu.
My level of concern about this is deceasing daily, ironically, as the hype increases daily.

Scot


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post #22 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 08:46 AM
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I'm with you, they are making a big deal out of it.


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post #23 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 10:23 AM
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Here is a new story comparing it to the Flu:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...=pocket-newtab


It has been said the current death rate is 2%, which is significantly higher than seasonal Flu.


but..that 2% rate is calculated by comparing known deaths to *known* cases..
it's very likely there are a *lot* of mild, unknown cases which have not been recorded.


which means the actual death rate is probably significantly less than 2%.
probably less than 1%, depending on how many undetected cases are floating around.

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post #24 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 11:00 AM
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I bought 17 bottles of hand sanitizer at Aldi's yesterday. Anybody need some?

Wake me up when the snow's done...
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post #25 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 12:47 PM
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I just drink Knob Creek Burbon Whiskey. Sanitize from the inside out.


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post #26 of 43 Old 03-03-2020, 07:22 PM
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Dave Ramsey, he has a youtube channel about personal finance:


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post #27 of 43 Old 03-04-2020, 12:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sscotsman View Post
Here is a new story comparing it to the Flu:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...=pocket-newtab


It has been said the current death rate is 2%, which is significantly higher than seasonal Flu.


but..that 2% rate is calculated by comparing known deaths to *known* cases..
it's very likely there are a *lot* of mild, unknown cases which have not been recorded.


which means the actual death rate is probably significantly less than 2%.
probably less than 1%, depending on how many undetected cases are floating around.

Scot

Yup, I read that in the end the death rate will be at or below the normal everyday death rate of the regular ol flu.


I'm not going to worry about it but like I always do, if I'm in a store and someone starts coughing or sneezing I'll move an aisle over and avoid that spot for a bit, especially if they didn't bother to cover their mouth.
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post #28 of 43 Old 03-04-2020, 08:27 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sscotsman View Post
Here is the way I'm looking at this now:

Every winter for our entire lives we have the chance of catching a cold.
Every winter for our entire lives we have the chance of catching the Flu.
Theoretically, anyone *can* die from the Flu, but we don't really worry about it, because it's very unlikely.

This winter, right now, we all are going to have the slight chance of catching Covid-19.
Like the Flu, the odds of catching it are low.
Like the Flu, if you do catch it, you might get sick, but you will also very likely recover.
Like the Flu, you are only in any real danger if you are elderly with an already-existing condition that puts you in poor health to start with.

So yeah, its a concern, but only *slightly* more of a concern than the Flu.
My level of concern about this is deceasing daily, ironically, as the hype increases daily.

Scot
Scot, I agree that people shouldn't be overly concerned about Covid-19 but that's not to say we shouldn't be concerned and proactive. It's way off the mark to suggest
Quote:
Theoretically, anyone *can* die from the Flu
That's like saying we shouldn't wear seatbelts although theoretically people can die in an auto accident. Last year nearly 500,000 Americans were hospitalized with the flu and 34,000 died.

Covid-19 is approx. 200X the flu so "theoretically" the numbers can be staggering. And the US numbers are likely to go up massively once testing begins.
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post #29 of 43 Old 03-04-2020, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Scot, I agree that people shouldn't be overly concerned about Covid-19 but that's not to say we shouldn't be concerned and proactive.

I completely agree.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
It's way off the mark to suggest "Theoretically, anyone *can* die from the Flu" That's like saying we shouldn't wear seatbelts, although theoretically people can die in an auto accident.

No, its not like that at all.. because I never suggested any such complacency or suggested any such analogy.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Last year nearly 500,000 Americans were hospitalized with the flu and 34,000 died. Covid-19 is approx. 200X the flu so "theoretically" the numbers can be staggering. And the US numbers are likely to go up massively once testing begins.

Right.. the numbers of known cases will go up, but the ratio of deaths per cases is not likely to go up..which means the overall percentages of deaths will go down, not up. I was only talking about that 2% number. It will likely fall to less than 1%, not because the disease changes at all, but because the amount of known cases increases.


Scot


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post #30 of 43 Old 03-04-2020, 03:52 PM
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my wife and i were advised by our dr. NOT to take the flu vaccine because we are in the high risk group. the vaccine can give high risk people the flu anyway.

but we usually get the flu every year anyway and have survived it. i think the body can get itself stronger by getting sick once in awhile. the more you try to avoid things the weaker the immune system gets.

yes , it's a concern. usually in very old sick people.

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